I've told you plenty of times that the Obama administration has absolutely no chance of sticking to its promise that it will not raise taxes on people earning under $250,000. But then he supports cap-and-tax legislation. Healthcare legislation. All of which will constitute in tax increases, whether Barack Obama considers them "taxes" or not. But another idea floating around out there is the VAT tax. So here is James Pethokoukis to connect the dots and explain how a VAT tax seems more likely than ever:

1) The joint statement from the just-concluded G20 Summit in Pittsburgh called for balanced global growth -- which means Americans must spend less and save more and reduce its budget deficit.

2) That same weekend, John Podesta, co-chairman of Obama's presidential transition team and an outside White House adviser, tells a Bloomberg reporter that a value-added tax is "more plausible today" than ever, adding that "there's going to have to be revenue in this budget." A VAT is a kind of consumption tax.

3) Yesterday, the Center for American Progress, the liberal think tank with close White House ties, holds a conference on the rising national debt. While speaker after speaker -- Paul Krugman, Roger Altman, CAP President Podesta (again), Laura Tyson -- admits entitlement spending must be reduced, they also agree that taxes must be raised. Altman suggests $400 billion in new tax revenue is needed almost immediately to calm financial market fears, and a VAT would be a great way of doing it. That's $400 billion a year, by the way, not over ten years.

4) Also, yesterday was the first meeting of President Obama's tax reform panel led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. In a two-part interview with Charlie Rose airing yesterday and today, Volcker says that if Washington can't get spending under control, either a VAT or a carbon tax would be effective revenue raisers. "Those are two big ones," he says.

5) As they used to say in the Soviet Union, "It's no coincidence." This is also the conclusion of one Washington insider with ties to the White House economic team: "Does this all add up to a trial balloon? Of course, it's a trial balloon. And I expect the administration will propose major tax reform, including a VAT."